000 AXNT20 KNHC 251743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W 6N17W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR 2W-16W INCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS OF GHANA AND THE IVORY COAST. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES THIS WEEK IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND SARASOTA ALONG 26N85W TO 25N88W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 25N92W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 86W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING NW OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH INLAND OVER NE TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 22N92W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N94W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE OF THE GULF BY EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TUE THROUGH THU. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NE COASTAL PLAINS THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA S OF 20N. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N83W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 20N60W INCLUDING PORTION OF CUBA... JAMAICA...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN 58W-62W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PASS E THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT AND MON DISSIPATING ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 25/1500 UTC NEAR 32N77W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 73W-81W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS GIVING WAY TO THE ABOVE FRONT BUT IS STILL ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N63W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W ALONG 28N53W TO 29N57W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 30N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED S OF THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM 23N46W TO 17N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 24N35W. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE ITCZ AXIS/MONSOON TROF TO 25N E OF 25W AND IS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN AND IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING THIN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL CONTINUE E PASSING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TUE AND WED. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE W ATLC ALONG 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W WED NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG 20N THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW