000
AXNT20 KNHC 251032
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
SIERRA LEONE AT 9N13W TO 2N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N19W TO 
1N30W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 
2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N 
BETWEEN 2W-13W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5S 
BETWEEN 20W-40W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E OF JACKSONVILLE 
FLORIDA AT 31N81W TO TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO THE CENTRAL GULF 
OF MEXICO AT 25N89W MOVING SE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
S OF TAMPA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WINDS NW OF THE FRONT ARE FROM THE NW AT 
10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO THE SE GULF AND S 
FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT 
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE IN THE W ATLANTIC WITH THE 
TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER W CUBA AT 23N80W.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO  S 
MEXICO AT 15N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE WITH 45 NM OF 
THE TROUGH S OF 17N. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N-19N 
BETWEEN 63W-68W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA 
...E CUBA...AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. ELSEWHERE 
...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND 
VENEZUELA. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF 
VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N AND E OF 70W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER S MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS 
...AS WELL AS OVER SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N W OF 76W. A 1021 MB HIGH 
IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N65W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N41W 
TO 29N53W TO 30N60W MOVING SE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE 
TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 23N46W TO 17N51W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N34W. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W AS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG 
DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS N OF 
27N BETWEEN 30W-60W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
32N70W TO W CUBA. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM 32N34W TO 27N45W WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA