000 AXNT20 KNHC 241740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W ALONG EQ30W 1N46W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST OFF THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-1N BETWEEN 15W-22W...FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 32W-41W...AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 48W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPES ACROSS THE NRN GULF WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N84W TO 28N90W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 25N95W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE ERN CONUS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN INDIANA NEAR 38N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SW GULF IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N92W TO 18N92W. DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN BESIDES NEAR THE FRONT...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OR ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN GULF. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE SE PORTION FROM A SURFACE HIGH IN THE W ATLC. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN MOSTLY WLY-SWLY FLOW. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-18N ACROSS THE BASIN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N68W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN GULF IS PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN FLORIDA WHICH WILL LIKELY EMERGE OVER THE WRN ATLC WATERS SHORTLY. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR 35N67W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 44W WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING OFF OF IT TOWARDS TO SW ALONG 31N45W TO 23N73W. THE SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N49W TO 19N54W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 42W-53W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 20W. IT SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 24N35W. BROAD UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR EQ21W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON