000 AXNT20 KNHC 240014 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA ...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N15W TO 1N28W TO S OF THE EQUATOR CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 12W-17W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 23W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IMPACTING THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR A SQUALL LINE REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO S OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W WITHIN 90-120 NM AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. A COLD FRONT TRAILS BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90.5W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N97.5W WHERE IT CONTINUES INLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE FRONTAL AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF. THIS TROUGH IS THE REMNANT OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DEGENERATED EARLY FRIDAY. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N95W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF AT THE SURFACE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING WHICH HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER A PERSISTENT AREA IN THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN IS COVERED BY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SKIM THE NORTHERN GULF AS IT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR SURFACE RIDGING TO REBUILD ACROSS THE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN W-SW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION IS AN AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 16N. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN N OF VENEZUELA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE SURFACE FLOW. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE ISLANDS AND N OF VENEZUELA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N69W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS TO THE S OF THE HIGH AND IS PRODUCING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 57W-79W. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE OF THE HIGH AND RIDGING. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 22N51W TO NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE-E THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE SETTLES TO THE SE. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS TO THE E REACHING FROM 31N22W TO 27N33W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL AXIS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE NE PORTION OF THE ATLC BASIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL N OF THE AREA. A SECOND AND WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS TO THE S NEAR 31N55W. MAINLY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 33N17W TO 25N24W WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH MAINLY W FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY 000 AXNT20 KNHC 240014 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA ...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N15W TO 1N28W TO S OF THE EQUATOR CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 12W-17W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 23W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IMPACTING THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR A SQUALL LINE REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO S OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W WITHIN 90-120 NM AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. A COLD FRONT TRAILS BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90.5W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N97.5W WHERE IT CONTINUES INLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED NEAR THE FRONTAL AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF. THIS TROUGH IS THE REMNANT OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DEGENERATED EARLY FRIDAY. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N95W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF AT THE SURFACE TO THE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN VERY SLOW MOVING WHICH HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER A PERSISTENT AREA IN THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN IS COVERED BY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SKIM THE NORTHERN GULF AS IT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR SURFACE RIDGING TO REBUILD ACROSS THE GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN W-SW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION IS AN AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 16N. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN N OF VENEZUELA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE SURFACE FLOW. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE ISLANDS AND N OF VENEZUELA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N69W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS TO THE S OF THE HIGH AND IS PRODUCING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 57W-79W. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE OF THE HIGH AND RIDGING. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 22N51W TO NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE-E THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE SETTLES TO THE SE. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS TO THE E REACHING FROM 31N22W TO 27N33W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL AXIS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE NE PORTION OF THE ATLC BASIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUN. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL N OF THE AREA. A SECOND AND WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS TO THE S NEAR 31N55W. MAINLY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA NEAR 33N17W TO 25N24W WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WITH MAINLY W FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY