000 AXNT20 KNHC 231745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W ALONG 2N29W 3N44W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-16W...AND FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 19W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL IMPACTING THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N87W TO 27N95W...AS OF 1500 UTC. A STRONG LINE OF STORMS IS WITHIN 40 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS N OF 28N. A COLD FRONT TRAILS BEHIND THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO SRN TEXAS AT 27N97W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE SW GULF. THIS TROUGH IS A BROKEN OFF PIECE OF THE ONE TO THE N THAT IS A REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N95W TO 17N92W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE TROUGH TO THE MEXICAN COAST. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER MISSOURI SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E OF IT. THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN SLOW MOVING WHICH HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO SKIM THE NRN GULF AS IT MAKES ITS WAY EWD ALLOWING SURFACE RIDGING TO REBUILD ACROSS THE BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN MOSTLY SWLY FLOW. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC IS IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N E OF 71W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE FAR SE CORNER N OF VENEZUELA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE SURFACE FLOW. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE ISLANDS AND N OF VENEZUELA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N67W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS TO THE S PRODUCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 49W-63W. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EWD FROM YESTERDAY. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS ALONG EXTENDING FROM NRN FLORIDA TO PENNSYLVANIA. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 54N42W. A SECOND AND WEAKER CUT-OFF LOW IS TO THE S NEAR 29N57W. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW INTO THE ERN ATLC ALONG 20W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W TO 27N36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC BETWEEN THE WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE W AND THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH TO THE W. MAINLY WLY FLOW COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON