000 AXNT20 KNHC 221734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 5N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N14W ALONG 4N26W 1N34W 3N43W TO THE BRAZIL COAST AT THE EQUATOR AND 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 25W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 34W-38W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 45W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY EXTENDING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER AT 30N89W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 22N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO INLAND MEXICO AT 18N92W. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG THE AXIS N OF 28N AND WITHIN 100 NM TO THE W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM W OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AXIS AS WELL AS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 95W-97W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OKLAHOMA NEAR 37N98W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 82W. EXCEPT FOR THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND NW GULF. MAINLY SE-S FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN BESIDES NEAR THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS E OF THE FRONT...AND 10-15 KTS W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NW AND DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN MOSTLY SWLY FLOW. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE THAT LIKELY ADVECTED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AFTER A FRONT DISSIPATED SEVERAL DAYS AGO IS IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 18N BETWEEN 58W-73W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE FAR SE CORNER N OF VENEZUELA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NE ISLANDS AND N OF VENEZUELA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N68W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED AROUND THE SRN PORTION OF THE RIDGE LIKELY FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS NOT IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 58W-73W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS ALONG 82W AS WELL AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING TO THE N. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE W ATLC WITH AXIS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 47N35W TO 28N27W THEN CONTINUING TO THE W ALONG 30N45W TO 42N65W, THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS WELL A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N24W TO 26N28W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE FAR ERN ATLC IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 9W. MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON