000 AXNT20 KNHC 221041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO 01N32W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W THEN TO 01S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 27W-38W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N40W TO 02N50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR 36N98W AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 28N90W TO 22N94W TO 20N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W TO 24N91W. ALSO...MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL AS NOTED ON RECENT SHIP...BUOY...AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS. THESE WINDS WERE ALSO CONFIRMED BY AN EARLIER 21/2314 UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WEST OF THE FRONT...N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY SUNRISE AND CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THE FRONT BECOMES SURFACE TROUGHING AND FINALLY ABSORBED AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MOST OF THE BASIN UNDER MODERATELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE. WITH THIS DRY AIR ALOFT AND A RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...THE RESULT AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING IS FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES AS NOTED ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 62W-72W...INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLOMBIA COAST. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EXPANSIVE 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N68W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 40W. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER THIS AREA IS NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 50W-81W. OTHERWISE...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE EASTERLIES WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 67W-78W...AND FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 49W-73W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N26W TO 27N50W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W TO 30N27W. SURFACE TROUGHING THEN EXTENDS FROM THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO 23N31W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF 26N E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N60W TO 18N20W TO 21N20W WHICH COINCIDES WITH A STRONG 90-120 KT JET ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN