000 AXNT20 KNHC 220546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 06N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 43W AND TO 01S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 24W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA NEAR 35N99W AND AS OF 22/0300 UTC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO 28N90W TO 23N94W TO 20N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N THIS EVENING. EAST OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH TO NEAR 23N91W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ALSO...MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS PREVAIL AS NOTED ON RECENT SHIP...BUOY...AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS. THESE WINDS WERE ALSO CONFIRMED BY AN EARLIER 21/2314 UTC WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WEST OF THE FRONT...N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY SUNRISE AND CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND AS THE FRONT BECOMES SURFACE TROUGHING AND FINALLY ABSORBED AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MOST OF THE BASIN UNDER MODERATELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE. WITH THIS DRY AIR ALOFT AND A RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE...THE RESULT AT THE SURFACE THIS EVENING IS FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES AS NOTED ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 62W-70W...INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COLOMBIA COAST. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EXPANSIVE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 35N67W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 40W. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER THIS AREA IS NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 50W-81W. OTHERWISE...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE EASTERLIES WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 65W-77W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N30W TO 27N50W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N27W TO 28N32W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING E-NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF 27N E OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N60W TO 21N24W WHICH COINCIDES WITH A STRONG 90-120 KT JET ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN