000
AXNT20 KNHC 191041
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 
09N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
09N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN TO 03S43W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH AXIS 
ALONG 90W. THIS RIDGE LIES EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH PLENTY OF 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AT THE 
SURFACE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH 
ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N79W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE 
AXIS SW TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 23N98W. PRIMARILY E TO SE WINDS 
PREVAIL AS NOTED ON RECENT SHIP...BUOY...AND OIL PLATFORM 
OBSERVATIONS WITH STRONGER WINDS W OF 90W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF 
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SE TO S 
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BRISK IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE UNTIL 
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NW OVER PORTIONS OF 
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW 
NORTH ATLC NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 25N70W TO 17N79W AND IS 
PROVIDING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. AS 
A RESULT...CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN TRANQUIL AND 
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE 
THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND 
SUBSIDENT...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO 
STREAM NE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES MAINLY E OF 
70W. THE ENTIRE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF E-NE TRADES 
GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KT 
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA COASTS. THIS 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SNAKES 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W TO 
26N70W TO 20N75W AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT 
ANALYZED FROM 32N48W TO 31N54W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS SE OF THE FRONT FROM 32N42W TO 24N47W WITH WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 32N42W TO 27N49W. FARTHER SW...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS AND PREVIOUS SURFACE TROUGHING AT THE 
SURFACE HAS WEAKENED WITH REMAINING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 53W-62W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE 
IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 46N10W. ALSO OF NOTE...EXAMINING LATEST 
METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE IMAGERY...GOES-R RGB DUST IMAGERY...AND THE 
CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT...AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 
AFRICAN DUST REMAINS SUSPENDED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN