000 AXNT20 KNHC 172326 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W AND GOES TO 2N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N19W TO 1N30W...PASSING THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...TO BRAZIL AT 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 9W-13W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 37W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. 5-15 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA BETWEEN JACKSONVILLE AND OCALA MOVING SE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED OVER THE GULF FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN CONTRAST STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ON SHORE SURFACE FLOW TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER INLAND COLOMBIA NEAR 6N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 72W-76W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS 10-15 KT NE TO E SURFACE FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA... AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW TO W FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF COSTA RICA. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N68W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ESE TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM E CUBA AT 20N75W TO 28N73W MOVING W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 73W-76W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 24N60W 29N57W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 50W-65W. A LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 20N-32N E OF 33W AS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS E OF 65W. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS E OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-17N W OF 57W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 55W-75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA