000
AXNT20 KNHC 162342
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W AND 
GOES TO 3N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N19W TO 2N30W...PASSING 
THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO BRAZIL AT 2S44W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-1S BETWEEN 31W-38W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 16N91W 25N88W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE 
RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. 
5-10 KT E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY 
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE SW FLORIDA 
COAST S OF NAPLES FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN 81W-82W MOVING W. 
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
NEAR TALLAHASSEE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 95W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MEXICO 
THE NW GULF ADVECTING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE NW TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH 
SHOWERS.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER INLAND COLOMBIA NEAR 6N73W.  
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E 
OF 80W WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE W 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS 10-15 KT NE SURFACE FLOW. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 
14N E OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. SIMILAR 
SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE... 
AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW TO W FLOW IS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE SE 
CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 
FROM THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W. A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS N FROM HISPANIOLA AT 19N72W TO 26N69W MOVING W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 67W-71W. ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 22N59W 29N55W MOVING 
W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 50W-54W. A LARGE 
PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 22N-32N E OF 
28W AS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W 
OF 60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE BAHAMAS IS ENHANCING 
RAIN AND SHOWERS. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-14N W OF 57W. ALSO 
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC 
BETWEEN 55W-75W.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA