000
AXNT20 KNHC 160615 RRA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 
3N21W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
3S42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 15W-21W AND FROM 3N 
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-33W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN 
STATES GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING 
W ACROSS THE SE GULF AND AT 16/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 25N83W TO 
THE W TIP OF CUBA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-25N 
BETWEEN 81W-85W INCLUDING PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AND ANCHORED 
BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE ALABAMA COAST NEAR 29N88W. THIS IS 
LEAVING THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN 
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS COVERING THE AREA 
N OF 15N W OF 75W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE 
TROPICAL ATLC DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WHERE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 60W-74W INCLUDING THE 
WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THESE 
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BANK LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-80W TO INLAND OVER 
PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED OVER THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PORTIONS OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN 
TONIGHT. THE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW SE 
OF NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH 32N72W OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND 
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 67W FROM 21N-27N 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N 
BETWEEN 62W-70W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N54W TO 
20N55W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED N 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM W OF 
BERMUDA AND A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 900 NM E OF BERMUDA. A NARROW 
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W TO NEAR 
24N38W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 
32N39W TO 28N42W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S 
OF 23N E OF 75W. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM S OF THE 
AZORES. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO WILL DRIFT W OVER 
THE DAY FRIDAY AND DISSIPATE BY SAT. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW