000 AXNT20 KNHC 141801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N20W TO 4N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N26W TO 1N30W...PASSING THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 2S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES MEXICO AND TEXAS... ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PART OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES TOWARD THE BAHAMAS-TO-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-TO-17N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA/SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...THROUGH WESTERN LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS...INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 25N82W 24N84W 23N88W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 17N75W IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTH OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS FLOW ULTIMATELY APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER. THE TWO SEPARATE WIND REGIMES ARE RESPONDING TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 24N55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE AS BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE INLAND AND WESTWARD FROM NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND IN CLOUDINESS THAT IS BANKED ALONG THE COAST FROM 81W IN PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE FOR WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST-TO-NORTH FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 TO 13 FEET. A SECOND AREA OF WIND AND SEAS IS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 83W...WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST 20 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET IN EASTERLY SWELL. EXPECT TODAY ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...NORTHEAST- TO-EAST WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING TO 8 FEET. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W... THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 17N75W IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N55W...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N39W...TO 31N37W 29N40W AND 25N47W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 25N47W TO 24N50W 23N55W 24N60W AND 26N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W...AND FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 52W AND 63W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 21W...ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N11W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED AROUND 26N24W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AT THE MOMENT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT