000
AXNT20 KNHC 141043
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 
3N25W 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W INTO SOUTH AMERICA 
NEAR 3S41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-36W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS INLAND OVER MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL 
PLAIN STATES GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 14/0900 UTC EXTENDING 
FROM 22N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N92W BUT IS NOT 
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AND A 1030 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA 
TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST. SE TO E RETURN COVERS THE GULF WHICH 
IS CONVERGING WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND PRODUCING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S 
OF 24N E OF 86W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL 
THROUGH SUN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC DOMINATES 
THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE 
CARIBBEAN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG 
NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL 
SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS LEAVING THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC ALONG 77W TO THE N 
COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JUST E THE 
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N72W TO BEYOND 32N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1030 
MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM E OF BERMUDA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N42W TO NEAR 22N60W 
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W ALONG 28N42W TO 25N47W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT S 
OF 27N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE 
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 26N E OF 60W WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 26N27W TO BEYOND 32N24W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. 
THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE AREA OF DISSIPATING 
AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE ITCZ TO 28N E 
OF 40W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUN. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW