000 AXNT20 KNHC 132337 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO NEAR 04N12W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES THROUGH 02N20W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W AND 45W... AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A PERSISTENT HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST EXTENDING ALONG 30N WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF NEAR PENSACOLA WED AS THE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS EAST. BUOY/CMAN DATA INDICATED E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE GULF. SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS WITH AN 1806 UTC OSCAT PASS INDICATING HIGHER WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND UNTIL RECENTLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N88W. THE OSCAT DATA NOTED ABOVE INDICATED LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE FROM WINDS DECELERATING WEST OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR SHOWERS REPEATEDLY DEVELOPING IN THAT SAME LOCATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ASCAT AND OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SETS BOTH MISSED THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HOWEVER NWP MODEL GUIDANCE FROM GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PERSISTENT 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N75W AND MODERATE HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA ALONG 30N IS ACTING TO MAINTAIN THIS AREA OF VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RANDOM CONVECTION DUE TO TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE SHOWERS OVER AND DOWNWIND OF JAMAICA...WITH AN ADDITIONAL PATCH OF SHOWERS APPROACHING THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... QUASI-STATIONARY HIGH PRES NEAR 34N61W WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. THU. THE FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST 32N WITH LITTLE EFFECT IN THE TROPICS THROUGH FRI. 1014 MB GALE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NEAR 34N41W WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO THE AREA NEAR 32N39W AND CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 23N48W. OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-35 KT NW OF THE LOW WHICH DEFINED THE AREA OF GALES. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STUBBORN BLOCKING HIGH NEAR THE AZORES...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO WEAKEN THROUGH WED EVENING THEN DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH ALONG 40W WED NIGHT AND THU. THIN VEIL OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS A BROAD AREA W-SW OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENT TODAY FROM THE ITCZ TO 27N E OF 42W...AND IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RANDOM LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB