000 AXNT20 KNHC 111144 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COAST OF AFRICA...AND THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU...NEAR 11N15W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 5N16W AND IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 3S40W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 5W AND 32W...AND FROM 3S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ALREADY-DISSIPATED MEXICO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THAT WAS OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W DURING THE LAST EIGHT HOURS...IS BEING BLOWN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD IN RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 23N87W TO 20N94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 80W ALONG THE PANAMA COAST...ACROSS PANAMA...CROSSING TO THE SOUTH OF 17N70W...EXITING THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N62W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 26N57W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 16N72W...TO 11N80W...BEYOND COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS RELATIVE TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT ARE IN NEW MEXICO... TEXAS...AND MEXICO RIGHT NOW. THE CURRENT WIND CONDITIONS IN... AND THE FORECAST WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR...THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W ARE WINDS FROM NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WITH SPEEDS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FEET IN NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. OTHER WIND CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 65W AND 84W...WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST- TO-EAST WITH SPEEDS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 TO 13 FEET. PLEASE CONSULT THE MIAHSFAT2 FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 19N60W 15N70W 10N78W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N65W TO 27N71W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 27N71W TO 28N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 28N80W...JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N70W BEYOND 32N59W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N57W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N59W TO A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N59W TO 26N59W AND 19N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 25N32W TO 17N34W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 53W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT