000 AXNT20 KNHC 101744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N25W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 13N19W TO 07N21W TO 02N24W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 11N19W AND CONTAINS NO CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 12W-15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS RIDGING IS LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FAN NORTHEASTWARD N OF 24N W OF 85W. AT THE SURFACE...A VERY SHALLOW AND WEAK 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N95W THAT CONTINUES TO DRIFT N-NW AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INLAND OVER SE TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS HOWEVER...EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD ALONG 94W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND BY SUNDAY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. AS FOR THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW GULF...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 90W THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED OVER THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST AND IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 81W-85W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N72W TO A BASE OVER WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 08N82W. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS LOCATED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH E-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N. DUE TO SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ENGLAND REGION S-SW TO 32N75W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W CONTINUING SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 28N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT SLIDES OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY MONDAY. FARTHER EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 26N63W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N61W TO 19N64W. MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS OCCURRING UNDER MAXIMIZED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 53W-62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N45W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH FROM 32N26W TO 26N32W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN