000 AXNT20 KNHC 091128 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI MAR 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N13W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 23W TO 3S29W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7S-2S BETWEEN 32W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...THE FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS TEXAS HAS MOVED INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER AT 30N94W TO THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS AT 26N98W CONTINUING IN TO MEXICO. MOST OF THE STRONGEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS INLAND EXCEPT FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS AS WELL AS OVER SE LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY DRY AIR BESIDES THE EXTREME NRN GULF. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER SUPPORTS THE FRONT WITH THE LONGWAVE LINGERED BACK OVER THE SW CONUS. MAINLY SE-S SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS COVERS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR STRONGER NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE STALLING AND SLOWLY RETREATING BACK TOWARDS THE NW. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CARIBBEAN SEA... FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ARE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR. AT THE SURFACE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 14N E OF 67W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND JUST OFFSHORE THE ERN SEABOARD SUPPORTING A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 36N52W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN BESIDES AN AREA SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 56W-65W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N61W TO HISPANIOLA. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N31W TO 28N35W. THE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 28N35W ALONG 24N47W 24N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 34W TO THE N OF 27N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE SHEAR AXIS ALONG 27N33W TO 22N36W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 18W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON