000 AXNT20 KNHC 081137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU MAR 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NRN LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO 3N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N14W ALONG EQ27W EQ40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 24W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-1N BETWEEN 32W-39W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 35W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER AND ACROSS THE GULF FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING STRONG SE-S FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN RANGING FROM 15-20 KTS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE WRN GULF. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INLAND TEXAS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF MID-DAY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING PLEASANT WEATHER THIS MORNING DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ARE TO EITHER SIDE ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW MOSTLY ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED N OF VENEZUELA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ERN SEABOARD SUPPORTS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NEAR 37N61W...WHICH IS SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST. A SHEAR AXIS...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS AROUND THE RIDGE ALONG 28N47W 25N61W 24N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 58W-63W. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY LIES UNDER THE DIFFLUENT ERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 65W. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF THE SHEAR AXIS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 42W TO THE N OF 33N SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE DISCUSSION AREA BORDER AT 31N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THIS POINT TO 26N40W. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 41N13W IS TO THE E SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E ATLC. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N38W TO 11N42W WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 4N26W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO W AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON