000
AXNT20 KNHC 051742
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON MAR 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO COAST OF SRN GUINEA AT 
10N14W TO 5N21W THEN ITCZ CONTINUES TO THE EQUATOR AT 25W TO 
COAST OF BRAZIL AT 5S38W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 24W TO 35W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 1028 MB OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS WILL 
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS BROAD ATLC RIDGE EXTEND W INTO GULF. 
PRESENT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS INCREASE TO A FRESH EASTERLY 
BREEZE TONIGHT AND BECOME STRONG TUE WITH SEAS TOPPING 10 FT.   
BY TUE NIGHT STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COVER MOST OF 
BASIN...STRONGER ON E HALF OF GULF.  OTHERWISE...DRY AND STABLE 
AIRMASS SITS OVER GULF WATERS UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME WHILE 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LAST COLD FRONT STRATIFIES 
NEAR YUCATAN PENINSULA.  LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER... 
OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS AND ASSOCIATED LINGERING NE 
SWELLS...IS EXPECTED IN GULF OF MEXICO FOR NEXT TWO DAYS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT ENTERED NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH 
STRONG NE BREEZE W OF BOUNDARY.  SEAS BUILDING TO 10-12 FT.  
PRESSURE GRADIENT SQUEEZES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND COLD FRONT 
CRASHES AGAINST LOW PRESSURE CENTER 1009 MB OVER NW COLOMBIA.  
PRESENT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE 
EXPECTED TO UP WINDS ABOVE GALE THRESHOLD AND SEAS MAY REACH 
19-20 FT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TO 1006 MB.  ELSEWHERE IN 
CARIBBEAN...STRONG EASTERLY TRADES COVER MOST BASIN WITH PRESENT 
SEAS REACHING 12-13 FT. 

NEVERTHELESS...BASIN REMAINS UNUSUALLY DRY UNDER UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE CREST WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED  
S OF 12N W OF 75W AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM INLAND COLOMBIA 
AND E PAC MONSOON TROUGH. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS AND W N ATLC 
SUPPORTING COLD FRONT ENTERED NW CORNER OF BASIN EARLIER NOW 
EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 
22N77W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OVER  
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITHIN 90 NM OF BOUNDARY ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING 
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS NE OUT OF BASIN. 

A SHARP SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SW FROM THE AZORES 
ISLANDS TO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  TROUGH SUPPORTS 
DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH THAT SKIMS EASTERN ATLC BOUNDARY NE 
OF 31N AT 30W.  

SURFACE RIDGE EXTEND FROM IBERIA PENINSULA TO THE GREATER 
ANTILLES PROVIDING VERY LONG FETCH AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
WHICH ENHANCES E-NE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ACROSS ALMOST ENTIRE 
ATLC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES