000 AXNT20 KNHC 051135 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON MAR 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SRN GUINEA AT 9N14W TO 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 34W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 14W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 23W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OUT OF THE BASIN LAST NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND A 1027 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WHICH ARE HELPING SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE SRN GULF IN THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE HIGH CENTER INCREASING IN SPEED RADIALLY AND REACHING UP TO 20 KTS IN THE ERN GULF. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING THE FRONT THAT MOVED OUT LAST NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AS THE SURFACE HIGH MERGES WITH ANOTHER HIGH TO THE N. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES E. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N84W 15N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN...ERN GULF AND ERN CONUS. BESIDES MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-84W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS THE ERN AND SW CARIBBEAN REACHING 30 KTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE AXIS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 27N71W TO 21N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N44W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 42N42W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT SKIMS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N32W TO 29N41W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 5N12W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON