000 AXNT20 KNHC 050544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN MAR 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER SRN GUINEA NEAR 10N11W CONTINUING SW TO 1N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N16W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 18W TO 3S28W TO THE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 4S40W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 12W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-EQ BETWEEN 16W-18W...AND FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 21W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS SITS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OUT OF THE BASIN DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W...AND A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 22N97W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE SW GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WHICH ARE HELPING SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE SRN GULF IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE HIGH CENTERS INCREASING IN SPEED RADIALLY AND REACHING UP TO 20 KTS IN THE SE GULF. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING THE FRONT THAT MOVED OUT EARLIER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO SHIFT E STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE RIDGING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS REACHED THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W TO GUATEMALA NEAR 15N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN...ERN GULF AND ERN CONUS. BESIDES MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 74W-83W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS THE ERN AND SW CARIBBEAN REACHING 30 KTS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIKELY SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE AXIS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE W ATLC WATER SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 27N74W TO 23N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 0600 UTC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 32N47W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 45N40W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT SKIMS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N35W TO 30N43W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 4N13W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON