000
AXNT20 KNHC 041113
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN MAR 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION OF 
THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AND EXITS THE WEST COAST THROUGH SIERRA 
LEONE ALONG 7N12W...CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 2N18W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUING WSW ALONG EQ30W TO THE 
NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ 
W OF 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN 
HALF OF THE CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA 
FROM THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N83W...SW ALONG 24N86W TO 
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY 
AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. 
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED WEST OF THE FRONT INCREASING 
TO 30 KT OVER THE NE BASIN. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING 
S OF 25N WEST OF THE FRONT...GENERATING SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. SOUTH 
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE 
BASIN LATER TODAY. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO 
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND DIVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS FROM TEXAS 
KEEPING N-NE WINDS STRONG THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT UPPER ATMOSPHERE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE KEEPING 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG WITH THE 
AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT LOCATED IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. THIS OVERALL TRADE WIND FLOW TURNS 
CYCLONIC OVER THE FAR SW BASIN...PRODUCING A NEARLY STATIONARY 
CLUSTER OF LOW-TOP SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 17N BETWEEN 79W-84W. 
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED SOUTHERLY W OF 80W N OF 14N IN 
RESPONSE OF THE LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED TO THE COLD FRONT 
MOVING ACROSS THE FAR ERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER 
MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS 
REGION AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. 
OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST 
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WRN ATLC WATERS  
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT JUST ENTERED THE DISCUSSION AREA... 
ANALYZED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST 
OF THE CAROLINAS TO ACROSS THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 
32N79W TO 29N82W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA 
INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 77W. 
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDES THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE 
CONDITIONS AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE 
EAST OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM 
THE IBERIAN PENINSULA SW TO NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS. WITHIN THIS 
SURFACE RIDE AXIS...A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF MADEIRA 
ISLAND AND A 1025 MB HIGH IS NEAR 29N52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA