000
AXNT20 KNHC 021810
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ AXIS FROM 05N15W TO 00N29W TO 01N37W CROSSING S OF EQUATOR 
NEAR 40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 19W TO 40W.  NO MONSOON 
TROUGH NOTED IN ANALYSIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SW N ATLC...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS GULF OF MEXICO AND 
ATLC OCEAN S OF 30N W OF 70W BRINGING DRY AIR MASS ALOFT.  SHARP 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTRUDES OVER CENTRAL ATLC DIGGING SW ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA ENHANCING SUBSIDING AIR MASS AND DRYNESS 
INTO SW CARIBBEAN.  ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ARE ABLE TO FORM UNDER 
SUCH DRY ENVIRONMENT IN SPITE OF WEAK 1008 MB THERMAL LOW PRES 
OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA.  ONLY TOUCH OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN 
THE TROPICAL ATLC IS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LESSER ANTILLES 
BECOMING DIFFUSE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE 
RIDING 90 KT JET CORE TO THE NE.  MOST CLOUDINESS REMAINS AT MID 
AND UPPER LEVELS.  

HEALTHY COLD FRONT ENTER NW GULF OF MEXICO SAT WITH SCATTERED 
CONVECTION AND STRONG NW TO N WINDS ON W SIDE INCREASING TO GALE 
FORCE BY EARLY SUN.  

CENTRAL ATLC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC...FLORIDA AND INTO 
GULF OF MEXICO PREVENTS ANY FURTHER SOUTHERN INTRUSION OF WEAK 
COLD FRONT NOW ALONG 33N W OF 60W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT MAY SKIRT 31N AND NORTHERN 
GULF OF MEXICO COAST.  

EASTERN ATLC OCEAN...
CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED AT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
1030 MB NEAR 34N17W MAINTAINING DRY AIR MASS E OF 30W. HIGH PRES 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E TUE ALLOWING EASTERN PART OF ABOVE MENTIONED 
COLD FRONT TO REACH S OF 31N INCREASING CONVECTION IN EASTERN 
ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES