000
AXNT20 KNHC 021144
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NON-EXISTENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF
THE COAST OF AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 4N12W 3N13W 3N16W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 16W...1S31W TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 
35W AND 41W...CONTINUING INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 
2S46W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN
19W AND 51W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL JUST TO THE EAST
OF FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 26N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AND SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N62W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
SEA...BEYOND COSTA RICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 
66W...IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND TO THE NORTH
OF ANGUILLA...THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N64W 12N63W 9N62W...FROM THE WATERS 
INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N15W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
32N38W...TO 28N53W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS 
NEAR 26N63W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE 
BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT