000
AXNT20 KNHC 281133
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 5N17W TO 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W...
CROSSING THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG ALONG 27W...TO 2S35W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 5S42W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N TO THE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE 
SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. 
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND FORECAST IN THE WATERS 
THAT ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 
77W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE AND/OR WILL BE RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N74W...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND...TO 23N78W. THE
TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD 20 KTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO 
THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N33W TO 32N33W 29N42W TO 28N47W
AND 23N54W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N35W TO 29N40W AND 26N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 26N50W TO 25N60W AND 25N65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE 
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N35W TO 28N46W 26N54W 26N62W 24N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
34N10W...TO 26N19W 19N37W TO 15N51W 12N57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT