000 AXNT20 KNHC 260508 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W TO 7N17W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO EQ27W TO 1S30W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 27W-33W...AND FROM 5S-EQ BETWEEN 26W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 23N92W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 85W-90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF THE FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-90W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE S OF 22N W OF FRONT TO 96W. 25-30 KT NE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S AND 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES. IN CONTRAST S OF THE FRONT 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF WHILE THE BACK END OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO RETROGRADE BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W. 20-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO INCLUDE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS TO BE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N66W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N25W 26N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 20W-25W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N20W ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N50W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA