000 AXNT20 KNHC 252338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA AND ENDS BETWEEN THE COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 6N14W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N25W 2S33W EQ43W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-35W...AND WITHIN 230 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FRONT HAS DECREASED IN FORWARD SPEED WITH JUST A FEW MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AXIS ANALYZED FROM 25N81W TO 23N88W...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N93W TO 18N93W. HOWEVER... WIDESPREAD STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER A GREAT PORTION OF THE GULF THAT INCLUDES THE SW...WRN AND CENTRAL BASINS W OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 30N85W TO 23N90W. THE ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FAR NW BASIN. NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT ARE OBSERVED N-NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF THE FRONT GENERATING SEAS UP TO 15 FT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK. STRONG WINDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING KEEPING THE BASIN UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS 9-13 FT ARE ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION. CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W CONTINUING ACROSS SRN FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DENOTES THE FRONT AXIS WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTING A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N35W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG 31N26W TO 25N27W. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM E OF THE AXIS. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA