000
AXNT20 KNHC 251752
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA AND ENDS AT THE COAST 
OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N11W ALONG 5N20W 
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO 2S33W THEN RECROSSING THE 
EQUATOR AT 41W TO EQ49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-50W...AND 
WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-35W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. 
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE 
FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N90W 
CONTINUING SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 18N94W AND INTO 
MEXICO. A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS IS ALONG THE FRONT WITH LITTLE 
OTHER ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN GULF. HOWEVER...STRONG 
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NW GULF. A 
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH IS 
LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW 
GULF. MOIST SWLY FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. STRONG NE WINDS ARE ALSO NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
REACHING GALE FORCE STRENGTH UP TO 45 KTS S OF 22N W OF THE 
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH THE WRN 
PORTION BECOMING STATIONARY BEFORE LIFTING N AS A WARM FRONT 
LATER IN THE WEEK. STRONG WINDS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT 
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
INTO THE W ATLC. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BUILT OVER THE 
AREA SUPPORTING STRONG ELY TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS OVER THE 
ERN CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN 
REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SMALL PATCHES OF 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE OVER 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT IN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES THE AREA.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 32N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W CONTINUING ACROSS 
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS OF 1500 UTC. A SMALL LINE 
OF SHOWERS IS ALONG THE AXIS WITH STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. 
THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE 
CONUS. THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS COVERED BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 
40N49W SUPPORTING A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N38W WHICH IS 
PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. A WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 25N52W TO 20N51W SUPPORTING POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES 
ISLANDS TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG 32N28W TO 25N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE AXIS. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC 
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON