000
AXNT20 KNHC 250524
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 10N15W TO 8N19W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO EQ30W 
TO 1S40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 5S-3N BETWEEN 25W-34W...AND FROM EQ-3N 
BETWEEN 34W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 31N83W TO THE N CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT 20N97W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF FROM 
20N-24N BETWEEN 95W-99W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE NW GULF N OF THE FRONT. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE 
NOTED N OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S OVER THE 
NORTH GULF STATES. IN CONTRAST S OF THE FRONT 5 KT S WINDS ARE 
NOTED WITH FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70'S. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK END OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING 
SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
ACROSS MEXICO TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE 
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 10-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH WEAKEST WINDS 
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S 
OF 13N TO INCLUDE OVER COSTA RICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND 
HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE REGION SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO MOVE 
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
35N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS 
NEAR 25N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 
32N27W 28N30W 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO BEYOND 
32N BETWEEN 24W-31W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 30N30W 
ENHANCING THE SHOWERS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N66W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH 
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE E ATLANTIC FRONT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA