000 AXNT20 KNHC 242342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 2N18W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S41W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF AT 24/2100 UTC BETWEEN PANAMA CITY AND APALACHICOLA FLORIDA THEN ALONG 27N91W 23N96W INTO MEXICO JUST S OF TUXPAN. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST E OF VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING SE FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE NW GULF W OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO OVER THE SE GULF LEAVING THE AREA SE OF THE FRONT ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT WITH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO MOVING INTO THE SW GULF WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF VERACRUZ. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BIG BEND OF FLORIDA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THEN STALL FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SAT. REMNANTS OF FRONT DRIFT N SAT NIGHT AND DISSIPATE AS ATLC SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS GULF THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BRINGING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE THE NE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERWISE LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS BASIN THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 350 NM W OF THE AZORES AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N46W ALONG 27N62W ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC N OF 10N E OF 50W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N30W AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W ALONG 23N42W TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER W ATLC TONIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SAT THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW