000
AXNT20 KNHC 241146
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 
02N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
02N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN ALONG 01S TO 03S41W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING 
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. 
WHILE MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT REMAINS 
WELL TO THE NORTH OF 32N...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 24N 
WESTWARD TO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. STRONG SOUTH 
TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF IN ADVANCE 
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA 
COAST BY 24/1200 UTC. CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER SE 
TEXAS AND UPON ENTERING THE GULF WILL RESULT IN STRONG N-NE 
WINDS...WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE 
SW GULF S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N73W 
AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE 
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND 
FAIR CONDITIONS WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. 
FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED NORTH OF THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC 
REGION THIS MORNING...PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERE W 
OF 45W. THIS IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE RIDGE...ANCHORED BY A 1031 
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 36N39W...EXTENDING 
FROM THE HIGH TO 32N44W THEN W-SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 
24N80W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF 
THE SW NORTH ATLC. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO 
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 40N30W TO 25N35W 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
32N28W. THE FRONT CONTINUES SW TO 29N30W WHERE IT BECOMES 
STATIONARY TO 23N43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. LASTLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE 
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING... 
DUE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN