000 AXNT20 KNHC 222346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N8W TO 2N16W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-39W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE GULF WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 87W TO OVER NE FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN FLORIDA AND LOUISIANA. SW RETURN FLOW COVERS THE N GULF AS LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE E CONUS MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW GULF EARLY FRI. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO FAR W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI EVENING THEN GRADUALLY STALL FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT EVENING. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS EXTREME SE GULF SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS AGAIN ACROSS NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER S HAITI AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-18N E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE STALLING COLD FRONT OVER SE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SAT AND SUN WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN THUS INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N54W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 29N66W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N72W TO 31N73W AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE FAR W ATLC N OF 29N W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 35W-55W EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N36W ALONG 23N46W TO 21N56W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 20N62W TO 21N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NE ATLC ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 20N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W TO 18N33W. CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE W DRIFTS S AND STRENGTHENS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR W ATLC FRI NIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE SAT THEN WASH OUT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE SUN AND MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW