000 AXNT20 KNHC 220555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 01N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N23W TO 02N35W TO 02N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 12W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 29N88W TO 26N97W. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AND THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N81W AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT W OF 50W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 36N66W. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL ATLC AND EXTENDS TROUGHING TO 30N BETWEEN 40W-50W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N43W THAT CONTINUES SW ALONG 26N50W TO 22N60W TO 22N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N77W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT REMAINING N OF 28N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 28N. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N18W CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N26W TO 23N45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN