000 AXNT20 KNHC 212337 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W CONTINUING ALONG 3N14W TO 2N19W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 12W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO OVER THE GULF WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF A SEABREEZE INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GAINESVILLE FLORIDA JUST W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO FLORIDA BAY TO 25N82W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE MUCH OF THE GULF GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. SOUTHERLY RETURN OVER THE NW GULF WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY EARLY WED THEN INCREASE THU IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE FRI AND MOVE OUT OF THE GULF LATE SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N79W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A REMNANT DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AT 21/2100 UTC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO THE W TIP OVER CUBA NEAR 22N85W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE BRINGING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N-17N E OF 70W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 77W-84W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN INCREASING TRADES ACROSS MOST OF CARIBBEAN DURING LATTER PART OF WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY SAT AND REACH E CUBA BY LATE SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE W ATLC TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 21/2100 UTC NEAR 32N46W ALONG 23N56W TO 22N69W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N78W AND DISSIPATES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NE ATLC ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N31W NARROWING AS IT CONTINUES ALONG 18N46W TO ACROSS THE FAR S WINDWARD ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA E OF THE ABC ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W TO 25N42W. A LARGE E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS WITH THE AXIS ALONG 6N/7N E OF 60W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY EARLY THU. THE CENTRAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE E ATLC WED WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR W ATLC WED NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY FRI. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR W ATLC LATE FRI REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SAT/ EARLY SUN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC LATE SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW