000
AXNT20 KNHC 192355
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 2N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N22W TO 
EQ30W TO BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 18W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 39W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA 
TO FT MYERS FLORIDA TO CANCUN MEXICO. LITTLE IF ANY 
PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A 1019 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER 
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. 15-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS ARE 
OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 90W. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 
50'S AND 60'S OVER THE NORTH GULF AND THE 80'S OVER THE SE GULF 
AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW LINGERS OVER THE GULF 
WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 25N. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE E 
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 80W. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO 
...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N W OF 80W.  
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1002 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MOVING E. A 1022 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N45W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE 
HIGH TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 
40W-60W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-40W. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N62W TO THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA