000
AXNT20 KNHC 191748
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1735 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 
1N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 2S30W TO THE COAST 
OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 12W-20W AND 
WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE CONUS 
SUPPORTING A 1006 MB LOW MOVING OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW INTO THE GULF ALONG 30N84W 
25N86W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. DESPITE THE LACK OF 
CONVECTION NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO W 
WINDS ARE NOTED IN SURFACE MARINE OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT 
ASCAT PASS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY 
AS THE FRONT PUSHES AND CLEARS EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY 
MONDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK E-NE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 AND MOVE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE 
CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND 
CENTRAL GULF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA 
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH DRY AIR 
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS 
AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A 
FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SHOWERS OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS OF 
PUERTO RICO...S-ERN JAMAICA AND ERN HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST 
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA GUSTING TO 25 KT INDICATED BY A 
RECENT ASCAT PASS. THE FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS TURNING 
FROM THE S-SE IN RESPONSE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS 
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SE 
CONUS WILL ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION DURING THE NEXT 
SEVERAL HOURS. WITHIN THIS REGION LIES A STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO NEAR 32N76W 
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A WARM FRONT TO 31N70W. THE ACTIVITY 
ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS N OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE TO MOVE N-NORTHEASTWARD AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
BRINGS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG 
THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A NARROW 
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS 
THE REGION ALONG 32N53W TO 29N60W WITHOUT CONVECTION. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE 
AZORES NEAR 40N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA