000 AXNT20 KNHC 190543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 19 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W THEN ALONG TO EQUATOR TO 43W THEN TO 01S47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N13W TO 01N28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING THAT SUPPORTS A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N90W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 20N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS N OF 26N...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SE ALABAMA...AND MUCH OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK E-NE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND MOVE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 08N76W NW TO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N87W. EAST OF THIS RIDGE AXIS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS FLOW REMAINS VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT WHICH IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION REMAINING W OF 60W WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE TROUGH EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W TO 31N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 29N70W TO 30N74W AND INTO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA NEAR 31N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 28N BETWEEN 57W-75W...AND N OF 30 BETWEEN 75W-82W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND EXIT THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N51W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 48W-65W. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 35W-60W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 12N47W TO 30N44W. VERY LITTLE CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE AXIS N OF 22N BETWEEN 36W-42W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N22W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN