000 AXNT20 KNHC 181144 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE NRN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W ALONG 1N30W 1N44W TO 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 16W-31W...AND FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 32W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE NRN GULF. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN TEXAS IS SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS ERN TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE NRN GULF REMAINS FROM 29N86W TO 29N92W WHERE IT HAS BEGUN TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT TO THE LOW CENTER ALONG 30N95W 29N98W. A FORMING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO NRN MEXICO TO 25N102W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS WITH A LINE OF VERY HEAVY ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE NE TEXAS COAST. OVER WATER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N W OF 87W...AND N OF 23N W OF 94W. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SRN GULF IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE PUSHING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. STRONG WINDS AND STRONG SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS UP CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN SURFACE CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAIR. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN BECOMING 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN COVERS THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N64W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLC S OF 27N. TO THE N...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W CONTINUING TO JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AT 29N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH TO THE N ALONG 61W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 24N60W TO 19N64W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 48W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N47W TO 17N50W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS TO THE E WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 41W-47W. THIS UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE CONVECTION N OF THE ITCZ REGION. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 27W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 40N24W. THE RIDGE IS PROVING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR ERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON