000 AXNT20 KNHC 180000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 4N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WSW ALONG 2N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN BETWEEN 20W-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-35W AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... W-SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW MOVING ACROSS NE MEXICO AND SE TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W ALONG 28N90W TO THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N85W TO 25N91W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE NRN HALF OF THE GULF N OF 26N. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE STRONGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS N OF 28N W OF 93W. A MESOSCALE COMPLEX SYSTEM IS GENERATING HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS IN THIS AREA. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE INTRODUCED TO THE REGION WITH STRONG CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA...PUERTO RICO...JAMAICA AND NICARAGUA N OF 12N ASSOCIATED TO DAYTIME HEATING AND LAND-SEA BREEZE/INSTABILITY. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA GUSTING TO 25 KT. THE OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SERIES OF RELATIVELY SMALL SHORTWAVES HAVE BEEN MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THESE ARE MOVING RELATIVELY FAST ENOUGH TO TAKE TURNS IN PUSHING/SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N70W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO OUR AREA ALONG 32N75W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N81W. WIDESPREAD WEAK SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING N OF 26N W OF 70W. TO THE SE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ...A 1019 MG HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N69W GIVING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 63W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE CARIBBEAN LEEWARD ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM 23N60W TO 20N62W WITH VERY LIMITED CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING COMPRESSED/SQUISHED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES OCCUPYING THE WRN AND ERN BASINS. THEREFORE...ITS INFLUENCE IS JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PLACE A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N45W ALONG 23N50W TO 18N50W GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N BETWEEN 40W-50W. WEAK ISOLATED CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 40W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA