000 AXNT20 KNHC 170546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 26W CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4S37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8S-4N BETWEEN 30W-37W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 43W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA...AND DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...THE WRN GULF...AND THE NRN GULF. WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC IS KEEPING THE SE CORNER OF THE BASIN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS IMPACTING BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE. AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 31N84W TO 28N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM TO 27N94W AS IT LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE AXIS ALONG 27N89W TO 24N94W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ARE HELPING PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NW OF A LINE FROM 29N83W TO 22N98W WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT MOSTLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NRN GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON SATURDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF WATERS LATER ON SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NRN COLOMBIA...BUT DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN FAIR. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN BECOMING 15-20 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FEW CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA BESIDES SOME LOW TOPPED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW N OF VENEZUELA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND TO THE S OF JAMAICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN COVERS THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N73W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N58W TO 29N70W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 51W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N43W 29N47W 26N53W. A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE LOW IS SW OF THE FRONT NEAR 23N59W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH IT ALONG 27N54W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 20N61W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 50W-53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS ELSEWHERE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 47N18W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON