000 AXNT20 KNHC 170000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 3N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WSW ALONG EQ30W 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5S-5N BETWEEN 28W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF BASIN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND ENTERS THE GULF AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W TO 28N92W...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS ALONG 26N97W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N90W ALONG 23N94W TO 20N95W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N84W TO 23N97W. AREAS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COINCIDING WITH THE AREA OF MOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS... GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE WATER SPOUTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AMONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARIES. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH COMPUTER MODELS DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER NE MEXICO AND THE NW GULF THAT WILL TRACK NE TOWARD THE SE CONUS. AN ASSOCIATED MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA GIVING A RELATIVELY STABLE AND SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA...SOUTH-WEST OF PUERTO RICO...AND SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THESE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS REVEALED THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA GUSTING TO 30 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA EXTENDS RIDGING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD...PROVIDING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REGION. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N60W TO 28N70W...BUT CARRYING NO CONVECTION. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...A 1024 MG HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N72W FURTHER SUPPORTING THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 16N BETWEEN 37W-64W SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG 32N42W TO 26N50W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO A DISSIPATING 1017 MB LOW NEAR 24N60W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W. DESPITE SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE GREATEST AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTICED FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 50W-58W... ASSOCIATED TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NE ATLC INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA