000 AXNT20 KNHC 161147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH WWWW UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N14W ALONG 7N16W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM ALONG THE ENTIRE ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE W OF A LINE FROM 8N49W TO 2N39W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE W ATLC. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF AT 16/0600 UTC. AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM OVER LOUISIANA JUST S OF LAKE CHARLES ALONG 29N94W TO INLAND OVER CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 16/0900 UTC. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS TO OVER E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS THE E GULF AND GEORGIA TO OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF AND OVER THE SE STATES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI AND OVER NE MEXICO/S TEXAS INTO THE GULF WATERS FROM 24N-27N W OF 95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF NW OF LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE GULF/NW CARIBBEAN S OF THE ABOVE ACTIVITY WITH ACCOMPANYING CLEAR SKIES. W GULF COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT THEN LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NE SAT INTO THE SE CONUS WITH COLD FRONT FROM SE LOUISIANA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SUN AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATE SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD S ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ACROSS E PANAMA THROUGH AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL NICARAGUA THEN N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN/SE GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 71W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN/W TROPICAL ATLC WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N68W TO 11N58W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD...AND TOBAGO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN INTO MON BUT WEAKEN AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS S FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CUBA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS BERMUDA TO 29N74W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N79W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ACROSS JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BRIDGED THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 16/0900 UTC WITH A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 27N70W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 24N80W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N53W 23N57W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 12N71W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N42W ALONG 25N55W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT ALONG 26N58W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 24N62W. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES S FROM THE LOW ALONG 21N63W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 56W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF THE LOW CENTER. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS COVERING THE FAR E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 30W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE AZORES SSW ALONG 32N34W TO NEAR 23N47W GIVING THE E ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY SUN THEN WILL EXTEND FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN AFTERNOON AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY MON. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW