000 AXNT20 KNHC 150551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 8N15W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W INT0 SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 8N-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT OVER THE N GULF IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AND HAS LOST ITS UPPER SUPPORT. AT 15/0300 UTC THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO 28N87W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE W GULF TO NEAR 27N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 87W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS ALONG 86W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF S OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT IN THEN NE GULF WILL EXIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT REACHING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO NE MEXICO THU THEN STALL FROM N FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO FRI AND SAT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE NW GULF ON SAT THEN QUICKLY MOVE TO FAR W FLORIDA LATE SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS ON SUN WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SW NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SUN EXITING THE GULF SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE FRONT/SHEAR LINE HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 17N79W TO 20N66W INCLUDING JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED OVER NICARAGUA WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS EXTENDING N TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST E OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS WSW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1020 MB LOW NEAR 32N43W ALONG 29N46W TO 26N51W WHERE IT MEANDERS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 23N59W TO N OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 31N33W TO 26N36W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SECOND NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTEND INTO THE E ATLC ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING S ALONG 25W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 15N58W TO 12N56W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SE WED. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS EARLY FRI REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 29N69W AND STATIONARY TO DAYTONA BEACH ON SAT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N SUN AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE SE CONUS WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO W CUBA BY LATE SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW