000 AXNT20 KNHC 142338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W CONTINUING ALONG 5N18W 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 24W EXTENDING TO BRAZIL ALONG 2S30W 1S36W 3S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 11W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPING SW TO NEAR 26N91W BECOMING STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING TO 27N96W...AS OF 2100 UTC. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FLORIDA N OF 29N. DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BESIDES JUST OFFSHORE OF MEXICO WHERE THERE IS SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 94W. MAINLY S-SW FLOW COVERS THE ERN GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATE SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE SE AND NW GULF. DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM N OF PANAMA ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SE CONUS.. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT...BESIDES THE FAR NW CORNER...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A SHEAR AXIS...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE NRN CARIBBEAN FROM JUST E OF PUERTO RICO TO S OF THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 18N65W 16N70W 16N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15 KTS WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE SHEAR AXIS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTING A PAIR OF 1025 MB SURFACE HIGHS NEAR 32N65W AND 34N57W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE SW N ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 47W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N47W TO 24N57W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W AND TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR AXIS IN THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. FARTHER E...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N31W TO 28N37W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A SURFACE HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 37W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE ITCZ REGION ACROSS W AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON