000 AXNT20 KNHC 122338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 4N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N22W ALONG 3N38W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 29W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING AROUND A 1037 MB HIGH OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N91W. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WITH NE WINDS ACROSS THE ERN GULF BECOMING ELY ACROSS THE WRN GULF. DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN...WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE CONVERGING AGAINST THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 94W. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE AREA E OF 94W WITH CLEAR SKIES E OF 84W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH MOSTLY WLY FLOW OVER THE GULF. SOME MOISTURE IS PRESENT ALOFT EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE FAR WRN GULF DUE TO CONVERGING WINDS ALONG THE COASTLINE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT IS IMPACTING THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W TO 18N76W WHERE IT BECOMES DISSIPATING TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W 15N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ARE ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUING INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TRADEWIND FLOW OF ABOUT 10 KTS. STRONGER WINDS ARE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS NICARAGUA AND THE WATERS TO THE E. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE FRONT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NRN PORTION OF THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AS THE PORTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN BEGINS TO STALL OUT AND CONTINUES DISSIPATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE AXIS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W CONTINUING SW TO HAITI ALONG 25N66W 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS S OF 24N. STRONG WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NOTED BOTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N...AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N38W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 42N45W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 39N30W TO NEAR 18N47W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE ITCZ REGION ACROSS W AFRICA. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON