000
AXNT20 KNHC 121110
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA 
LEONE NEAR 8N13 ALONG 4N18W TO 3N25W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
ALONG 1N34W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S45W. SCATTERED WEAK TO 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF BOTH THE ITCZ AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE BASIN IN THE 
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AND 
NW CARIBBEAN. THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER IS OVER THE FAR WRN 
GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 93W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT 
PASS INDICATE N-NE WINDS 20-25 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 
KT ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW COVERS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...CARRYING MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE 
ERN TROPICAL PACIFIC TO ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. STRONG 
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH OVER NE KANSAS WILL 
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG WINDS REMAINING 
THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E...SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW 
WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SRN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE 
WRN ATLC WATERS ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH EASTERN CUBA 
NEAR 20N77W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. NIGHT VISION 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED LOW-TOP SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
NOTICED OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-16N W 
OF 78W. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS REVEALED NORTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KT 
BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS 
UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A FAIRLY STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH DRY AIR AND 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE RELAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
MAINTAINING EASTERLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS 
THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT NEAR THE 
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO STALL AND 
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD WITH A 
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH 
SUPPORTING A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N63W 25N70W 
TO ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH 
EASTERN CUBA ALONG 20N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90-120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N W OF 70W...AS 
WELL AS WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF 29N WITH SEAS BETWEEN 8 TO 
15 FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 
1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N40W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS 
THE AREA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA