000
AXNT20 KNHC 120535
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 
10N14W TO 5N21W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N30W EQ40W TO 
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF BOTH 
THE ITCZ AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING... 
CARRYING MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE ERN TROPICAL PACIFIC TO ACROSS 
THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. AT SURFACE...LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE BASIN S OF 27N IN THE WAKE OF A COLD 
FRONT THAT HAS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. 
THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER IS OVER THE FAR WRN GULF AND THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE WITH SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N W OF 
93W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATE N-NE 
WINDS 20-25 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA. 
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH OVER NE KANSAS 
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG WINDS 
REMAINING THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E...SE TO 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SRN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE 
WRN ATLC ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 
22N79W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W. NIGHT VISION 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED LOW-TOP SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTICED
OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-16N W OF 80W. 
A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALED NORTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KT BEHIND THE 
FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING. THE RELAX 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING EASTERLY TRADES IN THE 
RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
GUSTING TO 25 KT NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE 
COLD FRONT TO STALL AND DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD WITH A 
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH 
SUPPORTING A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N66W 25N73W 
TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN 
THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 
24N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 30N W OF 
74W...AS WELL AS WITHIN 210 NM E OF FRONT N OF 29N WITH SEAS 
BETWEEN 8 TO 12 FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EWD OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE 
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N40W PROVIDING MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA