000 AXNT20 KNHC 110551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 5N21W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 10W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM OVER THE E CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING RAPIDLY FROM E TENNESSEE TO TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT AT 11/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO CEDAR KEY ALONG 25N88W TO JUST S OF TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 88W WITH LIGHT RAIN N OF THE FRONT E OF 88W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT REMAINS INLAND OVER N LOUISIANA/AND E TEXAS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS BUT WILL EMERGE INTO THE NW ATLC ON SAT NIGHT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SE GULF ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF THE FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE S GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL RACE OUT OF THE GULF LATER TODAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE NW COASTAL PLAIN MON NIGHT STALLING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT N WED AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS ALONG 75W AND EXTENDING OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-64W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADES WINDS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND SUNRISE TODAY THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT AT 11/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST NEAR WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ALONG 32N79W ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N80W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NEAR 26N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 32N50W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THE DISCUSSION DRAPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W TO 30N59W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N65W TO 28N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 61W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W SW ALONG 22N40W INTO THE TROPICS TO 7N53W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM S OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W TO 25N65W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WATERS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL LIFT N TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR W ATLC. THIS COLD FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM 31N73W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SAT. THE REINFORCING FRONT OVER THE SE CONUS WILL MOVE THROUGH NW ATLC SAT NIGHT BEFORE CATCHING UP WITH THE ABOVE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC MON AND TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE W ATLC TUE AND WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW