000
AXNT20 KNHC 090546
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N15W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4N19W 
3N26W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
1S46W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE MONSOON 
TROF/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 13W-16W AND 21W-28W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING INTO 
THE W ATLC AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SE OVER THE GULF 
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER E OKLAHOMA. A 1016 MB SURFACE 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N93W AT 09/0300 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING E ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CROSSING THE FAR NW 
CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N84W CONTINUING INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED TO 
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE W GULF S OF 
28N W OF 90W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF S OF 27N E OF 90W. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE 
LOW WILL DRIFT N THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE 
CONTINUES TO BUILD SE. THE LOW WILL THEN MERGE WITH A QUICK 
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL 
PASS E OF THE AREA SAT WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE 
FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC 
DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N84W CONTINUING 
OVER CUBA NEAR 22N80W INTO THE W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 
22N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS 
THE BASIN. AN AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE 
CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 16N E OF 66W TO 
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS 
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT 
N OUT OF THE BY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL SAT AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN DISSIPATING 
ALONG 18N ON MON AS THE N PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVERS THROUGH 
THE W ATLC. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC E OF 55W WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS EXTENDING 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND BERMUDA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA 
NEAR 22N80W INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO A 
1016 MB SURFACE LOW THAT AT 09/0300 UTC IS CENTERED NEAR 28N74W 
CONTINUING TO 31N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 25N80W TO 
BEYOND 32N70W. A BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES 
THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NE OF THE 
AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N33W ALONG 27N53W TO 
24N70W. UPPER LEVEL ENE FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS IS TAPPING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND GENERATING AN AREA OF 
DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE 
FROM SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W TO 10N23W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ATLC WATERS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE W 
ATLC SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 
INTO THE NW BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL 
MERGE WITH THE TROUGH ON THU FROM NEAR 31N69W TO 27N74W BECOMING 
STATIONARY TO W CUBA. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL FROM NEAR 
BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI MORNING AND BECOME ORIENTED 
ALONG 25N FRI NIGHT AND SAT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC SAT REACHING FROM E OF BERMUDA TO E CUBA 
BY LATE SUN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ON MON. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW